Discover more from CalculatedRisk Newsletter
California Home Sales Down 23.6% YoY in May, Median Prices Decline 6.4% YoY
California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report sales and the change in months of inventory.
Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, June 22, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 4.24 million SAAR.
Last Friday, housing economist Tom Lawler noted:
Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, comprising over 225,000 transactions, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May, down 0.7% from April’s preliminary pace and down 21.3% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace.
California Home Sales Down 23.6% YoY in May, Prices Decline 6.4% YoY
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Interest rate reprieve boosts California home sales to highest level in eight months, C.A.R. reports
• Existing, single-family home sales totaled 289,460 in May on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 9.8 percent from April and down 23.6 percent from May 2022.
• May’s statewide median home price was $836,110, up 3.0 percent from April and down 6.4 percent from May 2022.
California’s housing market rebounded in May as home sales surged to the highest level in eight months and the statewide median price notched above $800,000 for the second straight month, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 289,460 in May, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
May’s sales pace was up 9.8 percent on a monthly basis from 263,650 in April and down 23.6 percent from a year ago, when a revised 378,640 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the eighth consecutive month. …
California’s median home price exceeded $800,000 in May for the second straight month, increasing 3.0 percent from April’s $811,950 to $836,110 in May. The statewide median price continued to rise and reached the highest level in nine months. Tight housing supply and more high-end homes being sold relative to prior months continued to put upward pressure on prices. Despite the improvement from early 2023, the median home price in California dipped 6.4% on a year-over-year basis for the seventh consecutive month from $893,200 in May 2022. The price drop seems to be stabilizing but more negative annual price changes will be observed in the coming months as rates are expected to remain high in the third quarter of 2023.
• Following its typical seasonal pattern, housing inventory in California dipped on a monthly basis for the second straight month from 3.2 months in February to 2.2 months in March, the lowest level since May 2022. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) in March 2023, nevertheless, continued to increase from a year ago, jumping 37.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.
• Housing inventory in California dipped in May after a brief bounceback in April, as sales improved while supply remained tight. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) in May 2023 was flat from last year and declined 16 percent on a month-over-month basis. Assuming a softer sales level in June, there could see a minor inventory improvement in the upcoming month, but the upward adjustment would be entirely due to a change in the demand side.
I’ll have several more local markets after that will be released after the NAR report, including New York, Miami, and Illinois.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.