Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June
FHFA House Prices up 2.9% YoY in June
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). April closing prices include some contracts signed in February, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% (a -3.1% annual rate). This was the fourth consecutive MoM decrease.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 3 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 9.0% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 4.4% from the peak, and Denver down 3.7%.
FHFA House Price Index Declined 0.2% in June
On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 2.9 Percent Year over Year; Unchanged Quarter over Quarter
U.S. house prices rose 2.9 percent between the second quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices for the second quarter of 2025 remained unchanged compared to the first quarter of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was down 0.2 percent from May.
All nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The Middle Atlantic division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 6.7 percent increase from the second quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025. The Pacific division recorded the smallest four-quarter appreciation, at 0.9 percent.
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Here is a map from the FHFA report showing the annual change by state for June 2025. Prices have fallen YoY in a few states and especially in D.C.
We will likely see further state YoY price declines in the FHFA data.
Case-Shiller House Prices
From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in June 2025
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain for June, down from a 2.3% rise in the previous month. The 10 City Composite increased 2.6%, down from a 3.4% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 2.1%, down from a 2.8% increase in the previous month.
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a slight upward trend, rising 0.1%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1% and -0.04%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index posted a -0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite Index fell -0.3%. ...
"June's results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "What makes this deceleration particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: The modest 1.9% annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices (-0.6%) that were more than offset by a 2.5% surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025.
"The geographic divergence has become the story's defining characteristic. New York's 7.0% annual gain stands as a stark outlier, leading all markets by a wide margin, followed by Chicago (6.1%) and Cleveland (4.5%). This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix (-0.1%), Tampa (-2.4%), and Dallas (-1.0%). Tampa's decline marks the worst performance among all tracked metros, while several Western markets including San Diego (-0.6%) and San Francisco (-2.0%) have joined the negative column—a remarkable transformation from their earlier boom years.
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Note: The comment is reversed. The first half of the period (2nd half of 2024) showed price increases, and the second half of the period (1st half of 2025) showed price declines.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index was down 0.1% in June (SA). The Composite 20 index was down 0.3% (SA) in June. The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in June.
The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.6% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year.
And a few things to watch …
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