Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December

FHFA House Prices up 1.8% YoY in December

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). October closing prices include some contracts signed in August, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The National index increased 0.42% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted, This is the 5th consecutive month with a MoM increase seasonally adjusted that followed 5 consecutive months with a MoM decline.

FHFA House Price Index Up 1.8% Year-over-year in December

On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 1.8 Percent Year over Year; Up 0.8 percent Quarter over Quarter

U.S. house prices rose 1.8 percent between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose 0.8 percent compared to the third quarter of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December rose 0.1 percent from November. …

Six of the nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The East North Central division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 5.0 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The Mountain division recorded a 0.2 percent decline.

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Here is a graph from the FHFA report comparing the annual change by region for December 2025 and 2024.

As expected, we are seeing YoY price declines in three regions and another region with little change YoY. There are significant regional differences.

And here is map of the four-quarter change by state.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in December 2025

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain for December 2025, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month.
• Inflation outpaced home price appreciation from June 2025 onward, eroding real home values through year-end and reversing a decade-long trend of positive real returns.
• Geographic divergence widened sharply: Chicago and New York led all markets with gains above 5%, while Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami posted the steepest declines among markets that finished the year in negative territory.
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“With December's results, we can now assess 2025's full-year performance in historical context,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "National home prices grew just 1.3% for the year — the weakest full-year gain since 2011, when prices fell 3.9%, and 5.3 percentage points below the 6.6% 10-year annual average. Even excluding 2021's near-20% Covid-era surge, the 10-year average annual gain stands at 5.2%, still 3.9 percentage points ahead of this year's result. …

“Decomposing 2025 price returns reveals a year of two halves," Godec concluded. "The first six months saw prices rise 2.6%, while the back half delivered nominal declines of 1.3% — and every one of the 20 tracked metro areas posted negative price returns over that same period. At the city level, Chicago (+5.3%), New York (+5.1%), Cleveland (+4.0%), and Minneapolis (+2.7%) led all markets for the full year, while Tampa (-2.9%), Denver (-2.1%), Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.5%) posted the steepest declines. This geographic divergence reflects the broader reordering underway: Historically steady Midwest and Northeast markets continued to outperform as Sun Belt markets that surged during the pandemic cycle extended their correction.”
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The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.3% annual gain for December. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 1.9%, down from a 2.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, in line with the previous month.
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The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a drop of 0.3%, and both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices decreased 0.1%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4%, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.5%.
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.5% in December(SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.5% (SA) in December. The National index was up 0.4% (SA) in December.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.4% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 1.3% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were slightly below expectations.

And a few things to watch …

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