Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in March
FHFA House Prices Up 0.1% in March; Up 1.7% Year-over-year
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
The National index decreased 0.22% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted,
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.1% in March; Up 1.7% Year-over-Year
On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 1.7 Percent Year over Year; Up 0.5 percent Quarter over Quarter
U.S. house prices rose 1.7 percent between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices for the first quarter of 2026 rose 0.5 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March rose 0.1 percent from February. …
Seven of the nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The East North Centraldivision recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 4.4 percent increase from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. The West South Central division recorded a 0.7 percent decline.
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Here is a graph from the FHFA report comparing the annual change by region for March 2026 and 2025.
As expected, we are seeing significant regional differences with year-over-year price changes ranging from a 5.1% increase to a 0.9% decrease.
Case-Shiller House Prices
From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in March 2026
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 0.7% annual gain for March 2026, down from a 0.8% rise in the previous month.
More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in March, with Seattle (-2.5%) displacing Denver as the weakest market and Chicago (6.1%) remaining the strongest.
For the 10th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with March CPI running 2.6 percentage points above the 0.7% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns. ...
“More than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March, reflecting a broadening and deepening housing slowdown,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index edged up just 0.7% in March from a year earlier, decelerating from February’s 0.8% rate. With consumer inflation accelerating to roughly 3.3% in March, U.S. home values have now fallen in real terms for the 10th consecutive month, underscoring an ongoing erosion of inflation-adjusted housing wealth.
“The geographic divergence remains stark,” Godec continued. “Midwest and Northeast markets are sustaining modest growth, while much of the Sun Belt and Western regions are still seeing declines. Chicago led all cities with a 6.1% annual gain, followed by New York (4.0%) and Cleveland (3.0%). In contrast, Seattle’s 2.5% year-over-year decline was the steepest in March, with Denver (-2.0%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%), and Phoenix (-1.6%) joining Seattle among the weakest performers. Even Los Angeles (-1.6%) and Washington (-0.1%) turned negative. The spread between the strongest and weakest markets – 8.6 percentage points, from Chicago’s +6.1% to Seattle’s -2.5% – highlights how localized this housing cycle has become. (Detroit’s March reading remains unavailable due to local transaction data delays.)
“Monthly price movements offered a seasonal spring lift but little underlying momentum. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index climbed 0.7% from February, and even double-digit composite markets like the 10-City and 20-City posted strong March gains (1.2% and 1.0% NSA, respectively). Yet after seasonal adjustment, the National and 20-City indices both slipped 0.2%, and the 10-City ticked down 0.03%, confirming that demand remains soft as we head into spring. The latest six months saw only a negligible 0.3% rise in national home prices, barely keeping pace with the 0.3% in the prior half-year – a sign of a housing market nearly at a standstill.
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The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 0.7% annual gain for March. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 1.4%, down from a 1.5% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 0.8%, down from a 0.9% rise in the previous month.
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The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices recorded annual gains of 0.7%, 1.2%, and 1.0%, respectively.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National and 20-City Composite Indices reported a monthly decrease of 0.2% and the 10-City Composite Index posted a 0.03% drop.
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index was down 0.03% in March (SA). The Composite 20 index was down 0.22% (SA) in March. The National index was down 0.22% (SA) in March.
The Composite 10 NSA was up 1.4% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 0.8% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 0.7% year-over-year.
Annual price changes were slightly below expectations.
And a few things to watch …
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