Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

FHFA House Prices up 2.3% YoY in August

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August (”August” is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). June closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.21% (a +2.5% annual rate). This followed five consecutive MoM decreases in the seasonally adjusted index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 11 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 8.2% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 5.7% from the peak, Tampa down 4.2% and Miami down 3.6%.

FHFA House Price Index Increased 0.4% in August

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.4 Percent in August; Up 2.3 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices rose 0.4 percent in August, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 2.3 percent from August 2024 to August 2025. The previously reported 0.1 percent price decline in July was revised to 0.0 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from -0.8 percent in the Pacific division to +1.2 percent in the Middle Atlantic division. The 12-month changes ranged from -0.6 percent in the Pacific division to +6.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic division.

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Here is a graph from the FHFA report comparing the annual change by region for August 2025 and 2024.

As expected, we are seeing YoY price declines in the West and other regions will likely follow.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in August 2025

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.5% annual gain for August, down from a 1.6% rise in the previous month.

• Housing wealth eroded in real terms for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1.5% national gain falling well short of 3% inflation.

• Nineteen of 20 metros declined month-to-month in August, with only Chicago posting a gain, signaling broad weakness beyond typical seasonal patterns.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.5% annual gain for August, down from a 1.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.1%, down from a 2.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, down from a 1.8% increase in the previous month.

New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.1% increase in August, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 5.9% and 4.7%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 3.3%. ...

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices continued to report negative month-over-month change in August, posting -0.3% for U.S. national index and -0.6% for both 10-City and 20-City Composite indices.

After seasonal adjustment, all three indices posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%.
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“August’s data shows U.S. home prices continuing to slow, with the National Index up just 1.5% year- over-year,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This marks the weakest annual gain in over two years and falls well below the 3% inflation rate. For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.

“The National Index rose 1.5% over the past year, with most of that gain coming in the recent six months (up 1.5%) while the prior six months were essentially flat. The 20-City Composite gained 1.6% annually and the 10-City rose 2.1%, both continuing their deceleration from earlier in the year.
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.2% in August (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.2% (SA) in August. The National index was up 0.2% (SA) in August.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.6% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 1.5% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were below expectations.

And a few things to watch …

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