Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May

FHFA House Prices up 2.8% YoY in May

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May closing prices). March closing prices include some contracts signed in January, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.29% (a -3.5% annual rate). This was the third consecutive MoM decrease.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 8 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 8.2% from the recent peak, Tampa is down 3.3% from the peak, and Denver down 3.3%.

FHFA House Price Index Declined 0.2% in May

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index® Down 0.2 Percent in May; Up 2.8 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices fell 0.2 percent in May, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 2.8 percent from May 2024 to May 2025. The previously reported 0.4 percent price decline in April was revised to a 0.3 percent decline.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from -0.8 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +0.3 percent in the West South Central and New England divisions. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +0.6 percent in the Pacific division to +5.9 percent in the Middle Atlantic division.

emphasis added

Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for May 2025 compared to May 2024. Prices have increased year-over-year in all regions. Note that the YoY increase is smaller this year, compared to the YoY increase in May 2024 in all of the nine regions.

We will likely see regional YoY price declines soon in the FHFA data.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 2.3% Annual Gain in May 2025

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.3% annual return for May, down from a 2.7% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 3.4%, down from a 4.1% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, down from a 3.4% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.4% increase in May, followed by Chicago and Detroit with annual increases of 6.1% and 4.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.4%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw slight upward trends in May, posting gains of 0.4%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices both reported gains of 0.4%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices saw a -0.3% decrease, as well.

“May’s data continued the year’s slow unwind of price momentum, with annual gains narrowing for a fourth consecutive month,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “National home prices were just 2.3% higher than a year ago, the smallest increase since July 2023, and nearly all of that gain occurred in the most recent six months. The spring market lifted prices modestly, but not enough to suggest sustained acceleration."
emphasis added

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was down 0.3% in May (SA). The Composite 20 index was down 0.3% (SA) in May. The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in May.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 3.4% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.8% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 2.3% year-over-year.

And a few things to watch …

The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers!