Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.9% year-over-year in May

FHFA House Price Index Unchanged in May, up 5.7% YoY

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May closing prices). May closing prices include some contracts signed in January, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.25%. This was the sixteenth consecutive MoM increase, but this tied December as the smallest MoM increase in the last 15 months.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 7.5% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 5.4% from the peak, Portland down 4.3%, and Phoenix is down 4.3%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index Unchanged in May; Up 5.7 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices were unchanged in May, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®). House prices rose 5.7 percent from May 2023 to May 2024. The previously reported 0.2 percent price increase in April was revised upward to 0.3 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from April 2024 to May 2024 ranged from -0.5 percent in the West North Central division to +0.3 percent in the New England division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +2.4 percent in the West South Central division to +9.2 percent in the New England division.

“U.S. house price movement was flat in May,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The slowdown in U.S. house price appreciation continued in May amid a slight rise in both mortgage rates and housing inventory.”

emphasis added

The seasonally adjusted monthly index was unchanged in May. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for May 2024 compared to May 2023. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is larger this year, compared to the YoY increase in May 2023 in eight of the nine regions.

The increase this year is the same in the West South Central region.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Again Breaks Previous Month's All-Time High for May 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.9% annual gain for May, down from a 6.4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 7.7%, down from an 8.1% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.8%, dropping from a 7.3% increase in the previous month. New York reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 9.4% increase in May, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with increases of 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching a 1.0% annual increase in May.
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The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends continued to decelerate from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 1.0%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted the same month-over-month change of 0.3% as last month, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly change of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

“While annual gains have decelerated recently, this may have more to do with 2023 than 2024, as recent performance remains encouraging,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Our home price index has appreciated 4.1% year-to-date, the fastest start in two years. Covering the six-month period dating to when mortgage rates peaked, our national index has risen the past four months, erasing the stall experienced late last year. Collectively, all 20 markets covered continue to trade in a homogeneous pattern. Coming into the 2024 presidential election, traditional red states are in a dead heat with blue states, both averaging 5.9% gains annually.

“The Big Apple returned to the top of the leader boards, toppling San Diego from its six-month perch. New York’s 9.4% annual return outpaced San Diego and Las Vegas, by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. All 20 markets observed annual gains for the last six months. The last time we saw that long a streak was when all markets rose for three years consecutively during the COVID housing boom. This rally pales in comparison in both duration and annual gains, with above trend growth of 6.2%. The waiting game for the possibility of favorable changes in lending rates continues to be costly for potential buyers as home prices march forward.”
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.4% in May (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.3% (SA) in May. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in May.

The Composite 10 SA was up 7.7% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA was up 6.8% year-over-year. The National index SA was up 5.9% year-over-year.

And a few things to watch …

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