Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year in October

FHFA: House Prices "Up 6.3 Percent from Last Year"

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). October closing prices include some contracts signed in June, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.65%. This was the ninth consecutive MoM increase following seven straight MoM decreases.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. Prices declined slightly in Portland in October. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.1% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 6.5% from the peak, Portland down 4.3%, Las Vegas is down 4.2%, and Phoenix is down 3.9%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in October; Up 6.3 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices rose in October, up 0.3 percent from September, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®). House prices rose 6.3 percent from October 2022 to October 2023. The previously reported 0.6 percent price increase in September was revised to a 0.7 percent increase. …

“U.S. house price gains remained strong over the last 12 months.” said Dr. Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “On a monthly basis, price appreciation moderated in October, with four divisions exhibiting slowdowns from the previous month.”
emphasis added

The monthly index increased 0.3% in October. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for October 2023 compared to October 2022. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is smaller this year, compared to the YoY increase in October 2022 in all of the seven of the nine regions.

The increase this year is larger in the East North Central and Middle Atlantic regions.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Accelerates in October

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual change in October, up from a 4% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 5.7%, up from a 4.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, up from a 3.9% increase in the previous month. Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.1% increase in October, followed again by San Diego with a 7.2% increase. Portland fell 0.6% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in October versus a year ago. ...

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite, posted 0.2% month-over-month increases in October, while the 20-City composite posted 0.1% increase.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 10-City and 20-City Composites each posted month-over-month increases of 0.6%.

"U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October”, says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital assets at S&P DJI. Our National Composite rose by 0.2% in October, marking nine consecutive monthly gains and the strongest national growth rate since 2022.”

“Detroit kept pace as the fastest growing market for the second month in a row, registering an 8.1% annual gain. San Diego maintained the second spot with 7.2% annual gains, following by New York with a 7.1% gain. We are experiencing broad based home price appreciation across the country, with steady gains seen in nineteen of twenty cities. This month’s report reflects trendline growth compared to historical returns and little disparity among cities and regions.”

“Each of our 10-city, 20-city and National Index, remain at all-time highs, with 8 of 20 cities registering all-time highs (Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, New York and Cleveland). While Portland remains slightly down compared to last year’s gains, Phoenix and Las Vegas have flipped to year over year gains. The Midwest and the Northeast region are fastest growing markets, while the Southwest and West regions have lagged other regions for over a year. A solid, if unspectacular report, this month’s index reflects a rising tide across nearly all markets.
emphasis added

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.6% in October (SA) and is at a new all-time high. The Composite 20 index is up 0.6% (SA) in October and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.6% (SA) in October and is also at a new all-time high.

The Composite 10 SA is up 5.7% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 4.9% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 4.8% year-over-year.

House Prices and Inventory

This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply, inverted, from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through October 2023). Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.