Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.3% year-over-year in April

FHFA: House Prices Increased 0.2% in April, up 6.3% YoY

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3-month average of February, March and April closing prices). April closing prices include some contracts signed in December, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.26%. This was the fifteenth consecutive MoM increase, but this tied December as the smallest MoM increase in the last 14 month.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 16 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 7.8% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 6.0% from the peak, Portland down 3.7%, and Phoenix is down 3.7%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2 Percent in April; Up 6.3 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices rose in April, up 0.2 percent from March, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®). House prices rose 6.3 percent from April 2023 to April 2024. The previously reported 0.1 percent price increase in March was revised downward to 0.0 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from March 2024 to April 2024 ranged from -0.2 percent in the West South Central and Middle Atlantic divisions to +1.4 percent in the East South Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +3.0 percent in the West South Central division to +8.5 percent in the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions.

“U.S. house prices continued to rise in April,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “However, the appreciation rate slowed in April amid a slight rise in both mortgage rates and housing inventory. The housing market in general began to show some signs of normalization.” emphasis added

The seasonally adjusted monthly index increased 0.2% in April. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for April 2024 compared to March 2023. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is larger this year, compared to the YoY increase in April 2023 in eight of the nine regions.

The increase this year is smaller in the West South Central region.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Break Prvious Month's All-Time High in April 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain for April, down from a 6.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 8.0%, down from an 8.3% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April with a 10.3% increase this month, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank this month for the smallest year-over-year growth, with a 1.7% annual increase in April.
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The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends decelerated from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 1.2%, 1.36% and 1.38%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite posted the same month-over-month increase of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively as last month, while the 20-City reported a monthly increase of 0.4%.

“For the second consecutive month, we’ve seen our National Index jump at least 1% over its previous all-time high,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “2024 is closely tracking the strong start observed last year, where March and April posted the largest rise seen prior to a slowdown in the summer and fall. Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year.

“Thirteen markets are currently at all-time highs and San Diego reigns supreme once again, topping annual returns for the last six months. The Northeast is the best performing market for the previous nine months, with New York rising 9.4% annually. Sustained outperformance of the Northeast market was last observed in 2011. For the decade that followed, the West and the South held the top posts for performance. It’s now been over a year since we’ve seen the top region come from the South or the West.
emphasis added

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.5% in April (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in April. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in April.

The Composite 10 SA was up 8.0% year-over-year, down from 8.3% YoY in March. The Composite 20 SA was up 7.2% year-over-year, down from 7.5%, and the National index SA was up 6.3% year-over-year, down from 6.5% YoY in March.

And a few things to watch …

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