Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.4% year-over-year in February

FHFA: House Prices Increased in February, up 7.0% YoY

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in October, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.41%. This was the thirteen consecutive MoM increase, and a larger MoM increase than the previous three months.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. Only Tampa saw a month-over-month decrease in February. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.2% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 6.1% from the peak, Portland down 4.0%, and Phoenix is down 3.1%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index Up 1.2 Percent in February; Up 7.0 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices rose in February, up 1.2 percent from January, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®). House prices rose 7.0 percent from February 2023 to February 2024. The previously reported 0.1 percent price decrease in January remained unchanged.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from January 2024 to February 2024 ranged from +0.4 percent in the West South Central division to +3.0 percent in the New England division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +3.7 percent in the West South Central division to +10.8 percent in the Middle Atlantic division.

“U.S. house prices rebounded with an increase in February, after declining slightly in January” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “All nine census divisions experienced price appreciation over the last 12 months, with New England and Middle Atlantic divisions posting double digit growth.” emphasis added

The seasonally adjusted monthly index increased 1.2% in February. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for February 2024 compared to February 2023. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is larger this year, compared to the YoY increase in February 2023 in six of the nine regions.

The increase this year is smaller in the West South Central, East South Central and South Atlantic regions.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index’s Upward Trend Persists in February 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.4% annual gain in February, up from a 6.0% rise in the previous month. The 10- City Composite showed an increase of 8.0%, up from a 7.4% increase in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.4% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Detroit , with an increase of 8.9%. Portland, though still holding the lowest rank after reporting two consecutive months of the smallest year-over-year growth, had a significant increase in annual gain of 2.2% in February.
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The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite, for the first time since November 2023, showed a pre-seasonality adjustment increase of 0.6%, 0.9% and 1.0% respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, while the 20-City and the 10-City Composite both reported month-over-month increases of 0.6%.

“U.S. home prices continued their drive higher,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6% in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022. Stronger gains came from our 10- and 20-City Composite indices, rising 7.4% and 6.6%, respectively. For the second consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with San Diego surging 11.2%. On a seasonal adjusted basis, home prices have continued to break through previous all-time highs set last year”
emphasis added

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.6% in February (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.6% (SA) in February. The National index was up 0.4% (SA) in February.

The Composite 10 SA was up 8.0% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA was up 7.3% year-over-year. The National index SA was up 6.4% year-over-year. Annual price changes were above expectations.

And a few things to watch …