Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December

FHFA: House Prices Up 6.5% Q4 over Q4

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). December closing prices include some contracts signed in August, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.19%. This was the eleventh consecutive MoM increase, but the smallest increase since prices declined (SA) in January 2023.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 13 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.7% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 7.0% from the peak, Portland down 4.7%, and Phoenix is down 3.2%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 6.5 Percent over the Last Year; Up 1.5 Percent from the Third Quarter

U.S. house prices rose 6.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 1.5 percent compared to the third quarter of 2023. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was up 0.1 percent from November.

“U.S. house prices increased modestly over the course of 2023,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Acting Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “However, the market showed signs of softening as house price appreciation was lower in the fourth quarter of the year than in the previous quarter.”
emphasis added

The monthly index increased 0.1% in December. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for December 2023 compared to December 2022. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is larger this year, compared to the YoY increase in December 2022 in five of the nine regions.

The increase this year is larger in the Pacific, Mountain, East North Central, New England and Middle Atlantic regions.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 5.5% Annual Home Price Gain for Calendar 2023

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous month. San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth.
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The U.S. National Index showed a continued decrease of 0.4%, while the 20-City Composite and 10- City Composite posted 0.3% and 0.2% month-over-month decreases respectively in December.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite all posted month-over-month increases of 0.2%.

“U.S. home prices faced significant headwinds in the fourth quarter of 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued its streak of seven consecutive record highs in 2023. Ten of 20 markets beat prior records, with San Diego registering an 8.9% gain and Las Vegas the fastest rising market in December, after accounting for seasonal impacts.”

“2023 U.S. housing gains haven’t followed such a synchronous pattern since the COVID housing boom. The term ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ seems appropriate given broad-based performance in the U.S. housing sector. All 20 markets reported yearly gains for the first time this year, with four markets rising over 8%. Portland eked out a positive annual gain after 11 months of declines. Regionally, the Midwest and Northeast both experienced the greatest annual appreciation with 6.7%.”
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

Note: Prices declined NSA but increased slightly seasonally adjusted.

The Composite 10 index is up 0.2% in December (SA) and is at a new all-time high. The Composite 20 index is up 0.2% (SA) in December and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.2% (SA) in December and is also at a new all-time high.

The Composite 10 SA is up 7.0% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 6.1% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 5.5% year-over-year. Annual price changes were at expectations.

And a few things to watch …