Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.6% year-over-year in August; New all-time High
"Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index ... rose 5.6 percent from August 2022 to August 2023 "
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). August closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.9%. This was the seventh consecutive MoM increase following seven straight MoM decreases.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis (Cleveland saw prices decline MoM). Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 9.5% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 7.3% from the peak, Las Vegas is down 6.5%, and Phoenix is down 6.1%.
FHFA House Price Index
U.S. house prices rose in August, up 0.6 percent from July, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®). House prices rose 5.6 percent from August 2022 to August 2023. The previously reported 0.8 percent price increase in July remained unchanged. …
“U.S. and regional house price gains remained strong over the last 12 months.” said Dr. Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The South Atlantic division showed moderate weakness in August, while the remaining census divisions posted positive price appreciation from the previous month.”
The monthly index increased 0.6% in August. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for August 2023 compared to August 2022. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is smaller this year, compared to the YoY increase in July 2022 in all of the nine regions.
Case-Shiller House Prices
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.6% annual change in August, up from a 1.0% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 3.0%, up from a 1.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, a slight increase of 0.2% in the previous month. ...
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index,10-City and 20-City Composites, all posted a 0.4% month-over-month increase in August.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted a 1.0% increase each.
“U.S. home prices continued to rise in August 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by 0.4% in August, which marks the seventh consecutive monthly gain since prices bottomed in January 2023. The Composite now stands 2.6% above its year-ago level and 6.4% above its January level. Our 10- and 20-City Composites each also rose in August, and likewise currently exceed their year-ago and January levels.
“One measure of the strength of the housing market is the relationship of current prices to their historical levels. On that dimension, it’s worth noting that the National Composite, the 10-City Composite, and seven individual cities (Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, and New York) stand at their all-time highs. Observing the breadth of price changes provides insight into another dimension of market health. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 19 of 20 cities in August (and Cleveland only missed by a whisker); before seasonal adjustments, prices rose in 13 cities.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is up 1.0% in August (SA) and is at a new all-time high. The Composite 20 index is up 1.0% (SA) in August and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.9% (SA) in August and is also at a new all-time high.
The Composite 10 SA is up 3.0% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 2.2% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 2.6% year-over-year.
House Prices and Inventory
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