Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August

Over last 4 months, FHFA Index has increased at a 1.9% Annual Rate

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). August closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.32% (a 4.0% annual rate), This was the nineteenth consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities (prices declined in Tampa and Miami). Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 6.8% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 4.3% from the peak, Portland down 2.7%, and Denver down 2.6%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in August; Up 4.2 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices rose 0.3 percent in August, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®). House prices rose 4.2 percent from August 2023 to August 2024. The previously reported 0.1 percent price increase in July was revised upward to 0.2 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from July 2024 to August 2024 ranged from -0.1 percent in the East North Central and New England divisions to +0.9 percent in the West North Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +2.4 percent in the West South-Central division to +6.3 percent in the East North Central division.

"House price appreciation in the United States remained modest for the sixth consecutive month," said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. "The slow but continued house price growth and the effect of locked-in interest rates led to persistent housing affordability challenges."

emphasis added

The seasonally adjusted monthly index was increased 0.3% in August. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for August 2024 compared to August 2023. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is larger this year, compared to the YoY increase in August 2023 in two of the nine regions.

Over the last 4 months, the FHFA seasonally adjusted index has increased at 1.9% annual rate (increases are slowing).

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.2% Annual Gain in August 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.2% annual return for August, down from a 4.8% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.0%, down from a 6.8% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.2%, dropping from a 5.9% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.1% increase in August, followed by Las Vegas and Chicago with annual increases of 7.3% and 7.2%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth of 0.7%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward trends reversed in August, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw -0.3% and -0.4% returns for this month, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

“Home price growth is beginning to show signs of strain, recording the slowest annual gain since mortgage rates peaked in 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “As students went back to school, home price shoppers appeared less willing to push the index higher than in the summer months. Prices continue to decelerate for the past six months, pushing appreciation rates below their long-run average of 4.8%. After smoothing for seasonality in the data, home prices continued to reach all-time highs, for the 15th month in a row.

“Regionally, all markets continue to remain positive, barely,” Luke continued. “Denver posted the slowest annual gain of all markets this year, dropping below Portland for the first time since the spring. The Northeast remains the best performing region, with the strongest gains for over a year. Currently, only New York, Las Vegas, and Chicago markets are at an all-time high. Comparing average gains of traditional red and blue states highlight a slight advantage for home price markets of blue states. With stronger gains in the Northeast and West than the South, blue states have outperformed red states dating back to July 2023.”
emphasis added

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in August (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in August. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in August.

The Composite 10 SA was up 6.0% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA was up 5.2% year-over-year. The National index SA was up 4.2% year-over-year.

And a few things to watch …

The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers!