Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September; New all-time High

FHFA: "U.S. House Prices Rise 5.5 Percent over the Last Year"

NOTE: The FHFA will release the conforming loan limits for 2024 this morning.

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in May, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.65%. This was the eighth consecutive MoM increase following seven straight MoM decreases.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in all 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.6% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 6.7% from the peak, Las Vegas is down 5.1%, and Phoenix is down 5.0%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 5.5 Percent over the Last Year; Up 2.1 Percent from the Second Quarter

U.S. house prices rose 5.5 percent between the third quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 2.1 percent compared to the second quarter of 2023. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.6 percent from August.

“U.S. house price growth continued to accelerate in the third quarter, appreciating more than in each of the previous four quarters,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Principal Associate Director in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “House prices rose in the third quarter in all census divisions and are higher than one year ago, driven primarily by a low supply of homes for sale.”
emphasis added

The monthly index increased 0.6% in September. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for September 2023 compared to September 2022. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is smaller this year, compared to the YoY increase in September 2022 in all of the nine regions.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Trend Upward in September

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual change in September, up from a 2.5% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 4.8%, up from a 3.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, up from a 2.1% increase in the previous month. Detroit surpassed Chicago, reporting the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 6.7% increase in September, followed by San Diego with a 6.5% increase. Three of the 20 cities reported lower prices in September versus a year ago.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index,10-City and 20-City Composites, all posted 0.3% month-over-month increases in September, while the 10-City and 20-City composites posted 0.3% and 0.2% increases, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 10-City and 20-City Composites each posted month-over-month increases of 0.7%.

“U.S. home prices continued their rally in September 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by 0.3% in September, marking eight consecutive monthly gains since prices bottomed in January 2023. The Composite now stands 3.9% above its year-ago level and 6.6% above its January level. Our 10- and 20-City Composites both rose in September, and likewise currently exceed their year-ago and January levels.

“We’ve commented before on the breadth of the housing market’s strength, which continued to be impressive. On a seasonally adjusted basis, all 20 cities showed price increases in September; before seasonal adjustments, 15 rose. Prices in 17 of the cities are higher than they were in September 2022. Notably, the National Composite, the 10-City Composite, and 10 individual cities (Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, New York, Tampa, and Washington) stand at their all-time highs."
emphasis added

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.7% in September (SA) and is at a new all-time high. The Composite 20 index is up 0.7% (SA) in September and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.7% (SA) in September and is also at a new all-time high.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.8% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 3.9% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 3.9% year-over-year.

House Prices and Inventory