Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February

FHFA House Prices up 3.9% YoY

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in October, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.26% (a 3.1% annual rate), This was the 25th consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 14 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 4.9% from the recent peak, Tampa is down 1.6% from the peak, and Denver down 1.1%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.1 Percent in February; Up 3.9 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices rose 0.1 percent in February, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 3.9 percent from February 2024 to February 2025. The previously reported 0.2 percent price growth in January was revised upward to 0.3 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from -0.8 percent in the Pacific division to +1.3 percent in the New England division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +0.9 percent in the Pacific division to +7.0 percent in the Middle Atlantic division.

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Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for February 2025 compared to February 2024. Prices have increased year-over-year in all regions. Note that the YoY increase is smaller this year, compared to the YoY increase in February 2024 in all of the nine regions.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in February 2025

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for February, down from a 4.1% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 5.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from a 4.7% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 7.0% and 6.6%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 1.5%.
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The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices presented slight upward trends in February, posting 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month increases of 0.5% and 0.4%. The U.S. National Composite Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%.

“Even with mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range and affordability challenges lingering, home prices have shown notable resilience,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets. Rather than broad declines, we are seeing a slower, more sustainable pace of price growth.”
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.5% in February (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in February. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in February.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 5.2% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 4.5% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 3.9% year-over-year.

And a few things to watch …

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