Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November

FHFA: House Prices "Up 6.6 Percent from Last Year"

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). November closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.24%. This was the ninth consecutive MoM increase, but the smallest increase since February 2023.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 14 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.8% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 7.2% from the peak, Portland down 4.5%, and Phoenix is down 3.4%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in November; Up 6.6 Percent from Last Year

U.S. house prices rose in November, up 0.3 percent from October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®). House prices rose 6.6 percent from November 2022 to November 2023. The previously reported 0.3 percent price increase in October remained unchanged.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from October 2023 to November 2023 ranged from -0.2 percent in the New England division to +0.7 percent in the Mountain division. The 12-month changes ranged from +3.1 percent in the West South Central division to +9.8 percent in the New England division.

“U.S. house prices continued to appreciate in November, with year-over-year growth slightly above the historical average.” said Dr. Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “All nine census divisions experienced positive price appreciation over the last 12 months, with five census divisions exhibiting deceleration compared to the price appreciation observed last year.”
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The monthly index increased 0.3% in November. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for November 2023 compared to November 2022. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is smaller this year, compared to the YoY increase in November 2022 in five of the nine regions.

The increase this year is larger in the Pacific, East North Central, New England and Middle Atlantic regions.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Upward Trend Decelerates in November

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 6.2%, up from a 5.7% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, up from a 4.9% increase in the previous month. Once again, Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.2% increase in November, followed again by San Diego with an 8% increase. For the third month in a row, Portland fell 0.7% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in November versus a year ago.
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For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index and 20-City Composite posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 10-City Composite posted month-over-month increases of 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%.

“U.S. home prices edged downward from their all-time high in November,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI. “The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months. Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.”

“November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%. Detroit held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those cities will vie for the ‘housing market of the year’ as the best performing city in our composite.”

“Six cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland). Portland remains the lone market in annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Other regions are not far behind with the slowest gains in the West of 3%. This month’s report revealed the narrowest spread of performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021.”
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

Note: Prices declined slightly NSA but increased seasonally adjusted.

The Composite 10 index is up 0.2% in November (SA) and is at a new all-time high. The Composite 20 index is up 0.1% (SA) in November and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.2% (SA) in November and is also at a new all-time high.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.2% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 5.4% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 5.1% year-over-year.

House Prices and Inventory

This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply, inverted, from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through November 2023). Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.