Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in May, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.33% (a 4.1% annual rate), This was the 20th consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities (prices declined in Los Angeles and Miami). Seasonally adjusted). San Francisco has fallen 6.8% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 3.5% from the peak, and Denver down 2.5%.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 4.3 Percent over the Prior Year; Up 0.7 Percent from the Second Quarter of 2024

U.S. house prices rose 4.3 percent between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 0.7 percent compared to the second quarter of 2024. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.7 percent from August.

"U.S. house price growth slowed in the third quarter, continuing a trend that started in the fourth quarter of the previous year," said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. "While house prices continued to increase because housing demand outpaced the locked-in housing supply, elevated house prices and mortgage rates likely contributed to the slowdown in price growth.

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The seasonally adjusted monthly index increased 0.7% in September. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for September 2024 compared to September 2023. Prices have increased year-over-year everywhere. Note that the YoY increase is smaller this year, compared to the YoY increase in September 2023 in six of the nine regions.

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in September 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for September, down from a 4.3% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 6.0% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, dropping from a 5.2% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.5% increase in September, followed by Cleveland and Chicago with annual increases of 7.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth with 0.2%.
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The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward trends continued to reverse in September, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw -0.3% and -0.4% returns for this month, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported monthly rises of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.

“We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,” Luke continued. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.”
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This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.1% in September (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.2% (SA) in September. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in September.

The Composite 10 SA was up 5.2% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA was up 4.6% year-over-year. The National index SA was up 3.9% year-over-year.

And a few things to watch …

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