December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year
Here is the ICE November Mortgage Monitor report (pdf).
Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Mortgage Refinance Retention Hits Multi-Year High as Falling Rates Spur Activity Among Recently Originated Loans
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its December 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. The latest analysis reveals servicer refinance retention rose to a 3.5-year high in Q3 2025 as falling interest rates expose homeowner eagerness to reduce monthly payments for lower returns than in past cycles.
“Modest rate relief this fall has driven mortgage application volumes to multi-year highs, showing the outsized impact that incremental affordability improvements have on borrower behavior and servicer retention opportunities,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “We’re now seeing the highest concentration of rate-and-term refinances in nearly five years, almost entirely driven by borrowers holding 2023-2025 vintage loans. Notably, the market has become more rate sensitive as hundreds of thousands of borrowers move in and out of refinance incentive with small daily rate shifts. This behavior shows how quickly demand can return when affordability improves, and it highlights just how closely households are watching rates as they try to manage monthly costs and access equity.”
Key findings from the December Mortgage Monitor include:
Refinance retention hit a 3.5-year high, led by non-bank servicers
Refinance retention reached a 3.5-year high (28%) in Q3 2025, with servicers retaining more than half of borrowers refinancing out of 2024 vintage loans. Rate-and-term retention rose to 37%, one of the highest points in the past decade, while cash-out refinance retention rose to a more modest 23%, reflecting the challenge of identifying and retaining equity-seeking borrowers.
Non-banks retained refinancing borrowers at roughly three times the rate of banks (35% versus 13%). Retention was highest among FHA and VA mortgages (36%), trailed by GSE (25%) and portfolio-held loans (23%) and privately securitized loans (6%).
Rate-and-term refinances dominated activity as more borrowers move back “in the money”
Rate-and-term refinances accounted for 62% of all refinance activity in October, the highest share in nearly five years. An estimated 95% of rate-and-term refinances in September and October involved 2023–2025-era loans, with the average refinancer carrying a loan balance of $505,000 and a credit score around 762. On average, they reduced their mortgage rate by 0.92 percentage points, translating to an average monthly savings of about $200.
Second-lien home equity withdrawals surged to 18-year high
Second-lien home equity loan (HEL) withdrawals climbed to their strongest level since 2007 in Q3 2025 as falling short-term rates made tapping equity more affordable. With millions of homeowners still locked into historically low first-lien rates, many are opting to access equity through HELs or HELOCs rather than refinancing their first mortgage.
Home affordability is at its best levels in nearly 3 years, but remains stretched
In mid-November, mortgage rates averaged 6.25%, bringing the monthly principal and interest payment for a median-priced home to $2,126. That payment equals 29.7% of the median household income, the lowest since early 2023. …
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Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased in October
Here is a graph of the national delinquency rate from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in October and remain below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash
Mortgage performance remained strong in October with the national delinquency rate falling by 7 basis points (bps) to 3.34%, down 11 bps from the same time last year and 53 bps below the October 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark
This year’s 2.2% improvement was better than the long-run average October improvement of 1.4%
Delinquencies improved across the board, with both early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90-plus-day) rates declining
The non-current rate declined 4 bps over last year, even as active foreclosures ticked up slightly
FHA loans remain an outlier, with non-current rates up 26 bps from last year, while GSE (-6 bps), VA (-1 bps), and portfolio-held mortgages (-19 bps) all improved
Late 2025 mortgage performance is benefiting from a milder hurricane season than 2024, with nearly 40K hurricane-impacted properties past due at the same time last year
House Prices Up 0.8% Year-over-year
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 0.8% year-over-year in November.
Improved mortgage rates and tight inventory are firming home prices, with annual growth ticking up to +0.8% in early November from +0.75% in October and holding steady near +1% over the past four months
November prices rose +0.19% seasonally adjusted (+2.3% SAAR), suggesting modest upward pressure on annual growth if trends continue
Only 11 of the 100 largest U.S. markets saw adjusted price declines from October to November — the fewest in 18 months — as inventory pullbacks balanced softer markets
Nearly 90% of markets posted stronger adjusted gains in November than October
Single-family home prices rose +1.1% annually in October, while condo prices fell -1.8%, with condos lagging single-family homes in most markets
Inventory Impacts Prices
About one-third of markets are seeing annual home price declines, while two-thirds are posting gains
The Northeast and Midwest dominate growth, with 24 of the top 25 markets for annual price gains located there, while all 36 markets with annual declines are in the South and West
New Haven, Conn., leads with prices up +7.3% year-over-year, followed by Syracuse, N. Y. (+7.2%), and Scranton, Pa. (+6.9%). The largest declines are in parts of Florida, Texas, Colorado and California
Markets are showing signs of rebalancing, with inventory improving in the Northeast and tightening in the South and West
The 10 hottest markets saw monthly gains below their 12-month averages, hinting at cooler growth ahead, while 27 of 36 markets with annual declines posted adjusted price increases from October to November, signaling modest firming in late 2025
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There is much more in the mortgage monitor.