Early Look at Local Housing Markets in April

Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down More YoY in April than in March

This is a look at a few early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in April were mostly for contracts signed in February and March. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were over 6% for all of February and March - compared to the 4% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in April.

It is likely sales were down more year-over-year in April than in March, however, the impact was probably not as severe as for closed sales in December and January (rates were the highest in October and November 2022 when contracts were signed for closing in December and January).

For review on mortgage rates, here is a table of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® data (includes points, so lower than the rate with no point rates).

Active Inventory in April

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in April.

Inventory in these markets were up 41% YoY in March and are now up 34% YoY. It is possible that inventory will be down YoY in a few months! First, here is a graph from Realtor.com showing that inventory is not increasing seasonally as much as usual.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle)

   

New Listings in April

And here is a table for new listings in April (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 30.6% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 33.8% YoY. The decline in new listing in April - for these areas - was about the same as the YoY decline in March.

Closed Sales in April

And a table of April sales.

In April, sales in these markets were down 34.5%. In March, these same markets were down 26.5% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a larger YoY decline NSA than in March for these early reporting markets, however there was one less selling day in April this year. This early data suggests the April existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, and the 20th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

This was a just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!