Early Look at Local Housing Markets in June

Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down Less YoY in June than in May NSA

This is a look at a few early reporting local markets in June. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in April and May - compared to the 5% range the previous year - closed sales were down year-over-year in June.

For review on mortgage rates, here is a table of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® data (includes points, so lower than the rate with no point rates).

As of this morning, 30-year rates were over 7%. This mortgage rate is from MortgageNewsDaily.com and is for top tier scenarios with zero points.

The higher rates in June and early July will impact closed sales in August and September.

Local Comments

From the NorthWestMLS: Demand keeping inventory in check as buyers compete over low inventory

The latest NWMLS report shows the number of active listings of single family homes and condominiums systemwide is down nearly 21% from June 2022 (10,607 versus 13,405). For single family homes (excluding condos), year-over-year inventory is down about 22.4%, while condo inventory declined 9.2%.

Pending sales for June totaled 7,759. That is a decline from both May’s total of 8,120 (down about 4.4%) and from the year ago total of 8,937 (down about 13.2%).

Last month’s 6,842 closed sales marked the largest number of closings since September, but compared to June 2022 the volume was down about 24%.

Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR): LVR reports local home prices stable to start summer
LVR housing statistics for June 2023

LVR reported that the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during June was $440,990. That’s down 0.3% from May and down 8.1% from $480,000 in June of 2022. Local home prices had been increasing in recent months, but are still below the all-time record of $482,000 set in May of 2022.
 …
By the end of June, LVR reported 3,680 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 1.0% from the previous month, but down 36.0% from the same time last year. Likewise, the 930 condos and townhomes listed without offers in June represent a 0.5% increase from May, but a 30.6% decline from one year earlier.

Active Inventory in June

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in June.

Inventory surged in these markets last year, but that has changed.

For example, inventory in Denver was up 94% YoY in June 2022, and is now unchanged YoY. And inventory in Las Vegas was up 134% YoY in June 2022, and is now down 35% YoY. That is a HUGE change.

Inventory for these markets were up 18% in May and are now down 13%.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle)

   

New Listings in June

And here is a table for new listings in June (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 34.7% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 30.7% YoY. The decline in new listing in June - for these areas - was similar to the YoY decline for the last several months.

Closed Sales in June

And a table of June sales.

In June, sales in these markets were down 20.4%. In May, these same markets were down 24.7% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in May for these early reporting markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in June 2022 and June 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis.

This early data suggests the June existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - and probably close to the May sales rate of 4.3 million (SAAR) - and the 22nd consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

This was a just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!