Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

Dec 02, 2025

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in October.

There were several key stories for October:

Sales NSA are essentially unchanged YoY through October, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! And the YoY comparisons for November and December will be more difficult.
Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 3 years.
Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels.
The median price is up 2.1% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).

Sales at 4.10 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were at the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.38 million SAAR for the month of October in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.

Closed Sales in October

In October, sales in these markets were up 2.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were up 2.9% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).

Notes for all tables:

New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

For next month (November 2025 sales): There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).

November sales will be mostly for contracts signed in September and October, and mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September and 6.25% in October (lower than for closed sales in October).

My early expectation - with lower mortgage rates - is that we will see existing home sales (SA) mostly unchanged in November compared to November 2024 (4.17 million SAAR). The comparison will be a little more difficult than the previous eight months.

Sales in October were up 1.7% year-over-year compared to October 2024.

Year-to-date, sales are essentially unchanged compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995, (lower than any year during the housing bust), so it says something that sales are tracking sales in 2024!

Months of Supply

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Areas in Florida and Texas - with high levels of months-of-supply - are seeing price declines.