Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

Oct 27, 2025

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in September.

There were several key stories for September:

Sales NSA are down 0.2% YoY through September, and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995!
Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for almost 3 years.
Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for the month of September since 2015).
The median price is up 2.1% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year or in 2026.

Sales at 4.06 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were at the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.32 million SAAR for the month of September in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.

Closed Sales in September

In September, sales in these markets were up 7.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were up 8.2% year-over-year in September (close).

Important: There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was lower than the NSA data suggested (there are other seasonal factors).

Notes for all tables:

New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

For next month (October 2025 sales): There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

My early expectation is that we will see existing home sales (SA) up slightly in October compared to October 2024 (4.03 million SAAR). The comparison will be fairly easy.

Sales were up 4.1% year-over-year compared to September 2024.

Year-to-date, sales are down 0.2% NSA. Sales last year (2024) were the lowest since 1995 (lower than any year during the housing bust), so it says something that sales are tracking slightly lower in 2025!

Months of Supply

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Areas in Florida and Texas - with high levels of months-of-supply - are seeing price declines.