Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June

Inventory Up, Sales Down Sharply, New Listings Picking Up

This is the final look at local markets in June. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.

We saw a significant increase in inventory in June, and maybe a pickup in new listings. So far, most of the increase in inventory has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates - but we need to keep an eye on new listings too.

We also saw a sharp decline in closings in June, and this might be due to buyers cancelling escrow because of the increase in mortgage rates.

Active Inventory in June

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in June. Inventory usually increases seasonally in June, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising. However, for these markets, inventory was up 30% from May to June.

Inventory in these markets were down 33% Year-over-year (YoY) in January, still down 11% YoY in April, and are now up 28% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year. This is a rapid increase in active inventory, however inventory levels are still historically low in most areas (some areas, like Phoenix, are back to pre-pandemic levels of inventory).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Mid-Florida (Tampa, Orlando), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in June

And here is a table for new listings in June. For these areas, new listings were up 4.4% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 5.9% YoY. New listings have increased over the last two months - new listing were down YoY as recently as April - but overall, we aren’t seeing a huge increase in new listings in these markets.

However, several markets are seeing a surge in new listings - Austin, Las Vegas, Phoenix and mid-Florida (Tampa, Orlando) are examples. A combination of less demand, and more new listings, is really pushing up inventory in these areas.

These are all formerly “hot” markets and perhaps some people are just trying to cash out in these markets after the huge increase in prices. Or it could be a leading indicator of more listings to come in other areas. This is something to watch.

Closed Sales in June

Sales in these areas were down 15.9% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales NSA in June (526,000) were 14.5% below sales in June 2021 (615,000).  So, this sample of local markets fairly somewhat close to the NAR report. Here is a comparison of the year-over-year change for the local markets I track vs the NAR since January.

The table below doesn’t include California where sales were down 20.9% year-over-year.

Existing home sales are reported when the transaction closes. Sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Recent data shows a significant slowdown in activity starting in May and decelerating further in June.

My sense is contracts for sales really declined in June, and that will show up as closed sales in July and August - so we should expect a further decline in existing home sales over the next few months.

More in August for activity in July!