Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in March.
There were several key stories for March:
Sales in March were down slightly year-over-year for the 5th consecutive month.
Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have been very low over 3 years.
Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels.
The median price is up 1.4% YoY, and with the increases in inventory - and we might see national price declines sometime in 2026.
Sales in March (3.98 million SAAR) were down 3.6% from the previous month (February was revised up) and were down 1.0% compared to the March 2025 sales rate.
Sales averaged close to 5.47 million SAAR for the month of March in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 27% below pre-pandemic levels.
California Home Sales Down 2.5% Year-over-year in March
California reports seasonally adjusted sales and some measures of inventory.
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California’s housing market remained sluggish in March as geopolitical tensions push mortgage rates higher, C.A.R. reports
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California declined 3.5 percent in March, and fell 2.5 percent on a year-over-year basis for the third straight month. Total home sales declined to 265,320 in March, based on data collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. In March 2025, 272,020 existing homes traded based on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. …
Housing inventory tightened further in March as the market prepared for the seasonal peak. The statewide Unsold Inventory Index (UII) declined 17.5 percent from February and was down 5.7 percent from March 2025. While total active listings rose on a month-over-month basis, they fell below the year-ago level for the second consecutive month. This pullback in new listings is largely attributed to the “lock-in effect,” as homeowners with low-rate mortgages remain reluctant to list their properties in a higher-rate environment..
emphasis added
Closed Sales in March
In March, sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in these markets were up 2.0% YoY. Last month, in February, these same markets were down 2.0% year-over-year NSA. The NAR reported sales were up 3.8% YoY NSA in March.
Important: There was one more working day in March 2026 (22) as in March 2025 (21). So, the YoY change in the headline SA data was negative in the NAR report while the change in NSA data YoY was positive (there are other seasonal factors).
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
For the previous month, there were the same number of working days in February 2026 (19) as in February 2025 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
Sales in most of these markets are down sharply compared to March 2019.
For next month (April 2026 sales): There were the same number of working days in April 2026 (22) as in April 2025 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be about the same as the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
April sales will be mostly for contracts signed in February and March, and mortgage rates averaged 6.05% in February and 6.18% in March (Slightly higher than for closed sales in March). Some of these contracts were signed prior to the war and the recent increase in mortgage rates.
My early expectation is that we will see existing home sales (SA) mostly unchanged in April compared to April 2025 (4.02 million SAAR). This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2025 and 2026, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis.
Sales were down 1.0% year-over-year compared to March 2025.
New Listings in March
For these areas, new listings were down 0.1% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were down 2.3% year-over-year.
New listings in these markets are still down compared to March 2019, although there are significant regional differences.
Active Inventory in March
Inventory was up 0.7% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 2.7% YoY. The slowdown in activity inventory growth is an important story.
Comparing to March 2019, there are significant regional differences.
More local data coming in May for activity in April!