Discover more from CalculatedRisk Newsletter
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Year-over-Year: Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down
The big story for November existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down further YoY in November as many potential sellers are locked into their current home (low mortgage rate). And active inventory increased sharply YoY.
This is the final look at local markets in November. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.
NOTE: I’ll be adding several more markets next month!
First, here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely. The NAR reported sales were down 35.2% NSA YoY in November.
Active Inventory in November
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November.
Inventory in these markets were down 31% YoY in January and are now up 33% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, and a larger YoY inventory increase than in October (up 27% YoY).
Special note: a few of these markets might be including pending sales in their inventory count, and active inventory is likely up more than 33% YoY.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)
New Listings in November
And here is a table for new listings in November. For these areas, new listings were down 18.2% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.
Last month, new listings in these markets were also down 18.2% YoY.
Closed Sales in November
And a table of November sales.
In November, sales were down 34.7% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) for these markets.
Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 40% YoY (all of California was down 47.7%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in around 20% YoY.
More local data coming in January for activity in December!
My early expectation is we will see a similar YoY sales decline in December as in November, due to the increase in mortgage rates in September and October.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.