Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in December.

The big story for December was that existing home sales increased year-over-year (YoY) for the third consecutive month following year-over-year declines every month since July 2021. However, sales in December, at 4.24 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were still historically low. Sales averaged almost 5.4 million SAAR in December 2017, 2018, and 2019. So, sales were still about 21% below pre-pandemic levels.

This YoY increase was a combination of weak sales in December 2023 and lower mortgage rates in October and November when contracts were signed (Existing home sales are reported at closing).

Also, regionally, inventory continues to increase sharply in Florida and Texas.

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

Months of Supply

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this will be the seasonal low for months-of-supply.

Miami is off the charts!

Active Inventory in December

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.

Inventory was up 17.5% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets were also up 18.6% YoY.

There are significant regional differences for inventory, with sharp increases in the South and Southeast (especially in Florida and Texas).

Comparing to December 2019, inventory is up in several areas and down sharply in others.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to tables in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)

4. Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

New Listings in December

And here is a table for new listings in December (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 6.2% year-over-year. Note that December is usually the slowest month for new listings due to the holidays.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 1.7% year-over-year.

New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to December 2019 activity.

Closed Sales in December

And a table of December sales.

In December, sales in these markets were up 10.7% YoY. Last month, in November, these same markets were up 3.9% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

There was one more working day in December 2024 (21) as compared to December 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was less than the NSA data suggested (there are other seasonal factors).

For next month (January 2025 sales): There were the same number of working day in January 2025 (21) as compared to January 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).

January sales will be mostly for contracts signed in November and December, and mortgage rates mortgage rates averaged 6.81% in November and 6.72% in December. This is up from the previous few months.

My early expectation is we will see existing home sales (SA) up year-over-year again in January, primarily because sales in January 2024 (4.00 million SAAR) were weak.

This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. This was the third year-over-year increase since July 2021.

More local data coming in February for activity in January!