Final Look at Local Housing Markets in September

Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down

The big story for September existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down YoY in September as many potential sellers are locked into their current home (low mortgage rate).

This is the final look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Important: Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged about 5.3%. Rates increased to around 6% in September and that will impact closed sales in October and November. In October 30-year mortgage rates have jumped to over 7%, negatively impacting closed sales in November and December.

Active Inventory in September

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in September.

Active inventory in these markets were down 32% YoY in January and are now up 23% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, and this is a larger YoY increase than in August (up 20% YoY for these markets).

A few of these markets might include pending sales in the reported inventory.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in September

And here is a table for new listings in September. For these areas, new listings were down 13.4% YoY. The sellers’ strike (buyers locked in with low mortgage rates) has slowed the increase in active inventory.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 10.7% YoY.

Closed Sales in September

And a table of September sales.

In September, sales were down 22.1% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) for these markets. The NAR reported sales were down 21.6% NSA YoY.

Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely.

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 30% YoY (all of California was down 30%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in the teens YoY.

More local data coming in November for activity in October! We should expect even larger YoY declines in the next few months due to the recent increase in mortgage rates.