Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July

Inventory Up, Sales Down Sharply, New Listings Decline

The big story for July existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down YoY in July. And active listings were up sharply. Also, median prices are falling in some areas (like California).

This is the final look at local markets in July. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but a decline in new listings. Most of the increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in July. Inventory usually increases seasonally in July, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising. However, for these markets, inventory was up 13% from June to July.

Inventory in these markets were down 33% YoY in January, still down 22% YoY in March, and are now up 31% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year. However, inventory levels are still historically low in most markets.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Mid-Florida (Tampa, Orlando), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July. For these areas, new listings were down 8.4% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 4.1% YoY. Overall, we aren’t seeing a pickup in new listings in these markets. In most markets, new listings are down YoY. This suggests the increase in active listings is due to less demand as opposed to more sellers.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales. Sales in these areas were down 22.8% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Contracts for sales in July were mostly signed in May and June, and we are seeing the impact of higher mortgage rates on July closings.

In June, all local markets I track were down 15.9% YoY, NSA. So, this was another step down in sales, although there was one less selling day in July this year than in July 2021. The NAR reported July sales down 22.4% YoY NSA, and down 20.2% Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

Looking ahead: In August 2022, there is one more selling day than in August 2021, so the SA decline in sales will be larger than the NSA decline.

Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely.

Sales in some of the hottest markets were down 30% or more YoY (all of California was down 31%), whereas in other markets, sales were only down in the high teens YoY.

More local data in September for activity in August!