Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in January.
The big story for January was that existing home sales increased year-over-year (YoY) for the fourth consecutive month following year-over-year declines every month since July 2021. However, sales in January, at 4.08 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were down from December and still historically low. Sales averaged almost 5.5 million SAAR in the January 2017-2020 period. So, sales were still about 25% below pre-pandemic levels.
This YoY increase was a combination of weak sales in January 2024 and lower slightly mortgage rates in November and December 2024 - compared to November and December 2023 - when contracts were signed (Existing home sales are reported at closing).
Also, regionally, inventory continues to increase sharply in Florida and Texas.
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
Months of Supply
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this is close to the seasonal low for months-of-supply.
Miami is off the charts!
Active Inventory in January
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.
Inventory was up 21.8% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 17.5% YoY. December and January are seasonally the low months for inventory. The real key is what happens in March!
Note the regional differences. For example, inventory is up sharply in Jacksonville, and down significantly in the Northeast compared to January 2019.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to tables in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in January
And here is a table for new listings in January (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 12.0% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 6.1% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in most of these areas are down compared to January 2019 activity (Jacksonville and Phoenix are exceptions).
Closed Sales in January
And a table of January sales.
In January, sales in these markets were up 2.9% YoY. Note that the NAR reported sales up 2.6% NSA year-over-year in January - about the same as this sample. Last month, in December, these same markets were up 11.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There were the same number of working days in January 2025 (21) as compared to January 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
For next month (February 2025 sales): There was one fewer working day in February 2025 (19) as compared to February 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be above the change in the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
February sales will be mostly for contracts signed in December and January, and mortgage rates mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in December and 6.96% in January. This is up from the previous few months.
My early expectation is we will see existing home sales (SA) down year-over-year in February, due to a combination of slightly higher mortgage rates, and because sales in February 2024 (4.31 million SAAR) were higher than the previous several months.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. In January, sales were up year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month, following year-over-year declines every month since July 2021.
More local data coming in March for activity in February!