Discover more from CalculatedRisk Newsletter
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October
Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down
The big story for October existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down further YoY in October as many potential sellers are locked into their current home (low mortgage rate). And active inventory increased sharply YoY.
This is the final look at local markets in October. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.
Important: Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Mortgage rates increased to around 6% in September and that impacted closed sales in October. In October 30-year mortgage rates jumped to over 7%, and that will negatively impact closed sales in November and December.
Active Inventory in October
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in October.
Inventory in these markets were down 32% YoY in January, down 2% YoY in May, and are now up 30% YoY!
Special note: a few of these markets might be including pending sales in their inventory count, and active inventory is likely up more than 30% YoY.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)
New Listings in October
And here is a table for new listings in October. For these areas, new listings were down 18.1% YoY. Potential sellers locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.
Last month, new listings in these markets were down 13.6% YoY.
Closed Sales in October
And a table of October sales.
In October, sales were down 28.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) for these markets.
Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely. The NAR reported sales were down 29.5% NSA YoY in October.
Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 40% YoY (all of California was down 37%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in around 20% YoY.
More local data coming in December for activity in November! We should expect an even larger YoY sales decline in November and December due to the increase in mortgage rates in September and October.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.