Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Year-over-Year: Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down

The big story for December existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down further YoY in December as many potential sellers are locked into their current home (low mortgage rate). And active inventory increased sharply YoY.

This is the final look at local markets in December. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.

NOTE: Hopefully I’ll be adding more markets next month!

First, here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely. The NAR reported sales were down 34.0% NSA YoY in December.

Active Inventory in December

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in December.

Inventory in these markets were down 32% YoY in January 2022 and are now up 46% YoY! So, this is a significant change from early in 2022, and a larger YoY inventory increase than in November (up 37% YoY).

Special note: a few of these markets appear to be including pending sales in their inventory count, and active inventory is likely up more than 46% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in December

And here is a table for new listings in December. For these areas, new listings were down 21.5% YoY. Potential sellers locked into their low mortgage rates has lowered new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 18.1% YoY.

Closed Sales in December

And a table of December sales.

In December, sales were down 35.7%. In November, these same markets were down 34.7% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 40% YoY (all of California was down 44.1%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in around 30% YoY.

More local data coming in February for activity in January!

My early expectation is we will see a somewhat smaller YoY sales decline in January, than in December, due to the decrease in mortgage rates in December (January sales are mostly for contracts signed in November and December).