Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June

Each month I track closed sales, new listings and active inventory in a sample of local markets around the country (over 40 local housing markets) in the US to get an early sense of changes in the housing market. In addition, we can look for regional differences. For example, listings in Texas and Florida are up more than in most other areas, and sales are down less year-over-year.

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR (and I’m frequently adding more markets). This is the final look at local markets in June.

The big story for June existing home sales was the large year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Also new listings were down sharply YoY and active listings are now down YoY.

First, here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales since January 2022 from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked pretty well. The NAR reported sales were down 17.3%% NSA YoY in June.

Active Inventory in June

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in June.

Inventory surged in some of these markets last year, but that has changed.

Inventory for these markets were up 7% year-over-year (YoY) in May and are now down 8% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in June

And here is a table for new listings in June (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 24.5% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 19.9% YoY. The decline in new listing in June - for these areas - was larger than the YoY decline for the last several months.

Closed Sales in June

And a table of June sales.

In June, sales in these markets were down 16.7%. In May, these same markets were down 17.4% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

My early expectation is we will see a somewhat lower level of sales in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) than in June. 30-year mortgage rates averaged about 6.4% in April and May (for closed sales in June), and 30-year rates increased to 6.7% in June (closed sales in July will be mostly for contracts signed in May and June).

On a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, June is usually the strongest month of the calendar year for closed sales, followed by July and August.

This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023. Since sales were declining every month last year, seasonally adjusted, the YoY decline will be less as the year progresses - and sales could be up YoY at the end of 2023.

More local data coming in August for activity in July!