Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

Inventory at Record Low

This is the final look at local markets in January. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

This update adds Columbus, Illinois, Indiana, Miami, New York and Phoenix.

My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, we are seeing record low inventory over the Winter. I’ll be watching to see if inventory follows the normal seasonal pattern and bottoms in February. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom until April.

Note that 30-year mortgage rates average 3.4% in January according to Freddie Mac. Now rates are around 4.0%.

Active Inventory in January

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in January. Inventory was down 10.2% in January month-over-month (MoM) from December, and down 31.8% year-over-year (YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in January, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 29.4% YoY, so the YoY decline in January was larger than in December. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis (included in state totals).

Please share with your friends and colleagues!

New Listings in January

And here is a table for new listings in January. For these areas, new listings were down 10.0% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 7.4% YoY.

Closed Sales in January

And a table of January sales. Sales were down 4.3% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported that sales NSA in January (352,000) were 3.8% below sales in January 2021 (366,000).   So, this sample of local markets is similar to the NAR report.