Final Look: Local Housing Markets in October

No Sign of a Slowing Market

This is the final look at local markets in October. This update adds Columbus, Miami, and New York.

I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory and new listings. One of the key factors for house prices is supply, and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, it is possible inventory will be up year-over-year sometime during the winter months, but inventory will still be at very low levels. It is also possible that we will see record lows over the Winter.

Active Inventory in October

Here is a summary of active listings for the housing markets that have reported in October. For these markets, inventory was down 5.9% in October MoM from September, and down 26.5% YoY.

Of these markets, inventories in Jacksonville, Miami and San Diego are at record lows. Sacramento and Washington, D.C. are the only markets with inventory up YoY in October (Austin is essentially unchanged YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in October, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 24.5% YoY, so the YoY decline in October is larger than in September. This is not indicating a slowing market.

In California, the C.A.R. reported inventory was down 18.3% YoY, but this isn’t included in the table below since C.A.R. doesn’t report monthly numbers.

Notes for all tables:

  1. New additions to table in BOLD.

  2. Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas), and Santa Clara (San Jose)

  3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Twin Cities (included in state totals).

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New Listings in September

And here is a table for new listings in October. For these three areas, new listings were down 9.3% YoY.

Note: Not all areas report new listings.

Closed Sales in September

And a table of October sales. Sales for these markets were down 8.6% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). This does not include California with sales down 10.5% YoY SA.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that sales were down 8.2% NSA from a year ago (a similar YoY decrease in sales).

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