"For many [home] sellers, it likely feels like the rug has been pulled out from underneath them"

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A few early reporting markets …

This is the first look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a sharp decline in closed sales, and inventory is up significantly year-over-year. Also, new listings are down as the sellers’ strike continues. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

Denver, Las Vegas, and San Diego

Here are some local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

Using months of inventory as a metric indicates that Denver Metro is moving toward a balanced market. … However, for many sellers, it likely feels like the rug has been pulled out from underneath them. Price reductions are rising, while active listings at month end rose 10.72 percent to 7,683. Pending sales declined 15.41 percent for both detached and attached homes month-over-month, which directly relates to a 6.38 percent decline in sales volume month-over-month. 

emphasis added 

From Las Vegas Realtors® Las Vegas area home prices hold steady after three-month slide LVR housing statistics for September 2022

“The good news for buyers is that it has been at least three years since we’ve had this many homes available for sale.” [said LVR President Brandon Roberts, a longtime local REALTOR®. ]

By the end of September, LVR reported 8,121 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 134.5% from the same time last year. Likewise, the 1,849 condos and townhomes listed without offers in September represent a 194.4% jump from one year earlier.
 
LVR reported a total of 2,554 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold in September. Compared to one year earlier, sales were down 36.7% for homes and down 39.7% for condos and townhomes. 

Active Inventory in September

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in September.

Inventory in these markets were down 38% YoY in January, down 6% YoY in March, and are now up 93% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year, but only a slightly larger YoY increase than in August (up 92% YoY).

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

   

New Listings in September

And here is a table for new listings in September. For these areas, new listings were down 15.2% YoY. The sellers’ strike has slowed the increase in active inventory.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 12.6% YoY.

Closed Sales in September

And a table of September sales.

In September, sales were down 33.1%. In August, these same markets were down 32.4% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in September 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in September 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. Last month, in August 2022, there was one more selling day than in August 2021 - so seasonally adjusted, the decline in sales in August was larger than in September for these markets.

Many more local markets to come!