Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in March; Up 1.0% Year-over-year

Boise leads Cities with 12.4% decline from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted

Note: This is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, Black Knight, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.3% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in March, putting the National FMHPI down 1.3% SA from its June 2022 peak, and down 2.6% Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) from the peak.

On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in March, from up 2.1% YoY in February.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021.

The second graph shows the month-over-month change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted. The index has increased for three consecutive months after declining MoM for eight consecutive months.

24 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

In March, 24 states and D.C. were below their 2022 peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-8.8%), Nevada (-7.9%), Arizona (-6.8%), Utah (-6.5%), Washington (-6.3%), California (-5.6%), and Colorado (-4.4%).

In March, house prices in 9 states and D.C. were down YoY, led by Idaho (-7.5% YoY), Nevada (-6.3%) and Washington (-5.1%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted.

When will Case-Shiller National House Prices be down Year-over-year?

A key advantage of the FMHPI is it is released earlier than the Case-Shiller index. The Case-Shiller released earlier this week was for February and is a three-month average of closed sales in December, January and February - and this could include contracts signed in October. The FMHPI is for February and includes closed sales and appraisals in February.

Here is a graph comparing the year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller and FMHPI.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The median price was down YoY in March, and based on the recent trend, the FMHPI will likely be negative year-over-year in April depending on revisions (reported at the end of May) - and Case-Shiller will follow soon.

Still, it appears prices increased slightly in Q1.