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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June to New High; Up 1.7% Year-over-year
Boise leads Cities with 11.7% decline from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted
Note: This is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, Black Knight, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.7% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June, putting the National FMHPI up SA from its previous peak in June 2022.
On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.7% in June, from up 0.8% YoY in May. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021.
The second graph shows the month-over-month change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted. The index has increased for five consecutive months after declining MoM for six consecutive months.
15 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
In June, 15 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-7.7%), Nevada (-5.2%), D.C. (-4.9%), Arizona (-4.9%), Hawaii (-4.6%), Utah (-3.8%), Washington (-33%), and Oregon (-2.5%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was down 0.5% YoY in May. The FMHPI is suggesting the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely by up soon.
The big question is “Will house prices decline further later this year?”
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