Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August to New High; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

Austin Prices Down 10.9% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted

Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, Black Knight, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.7% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in July, putting the National FMHPI up SA from its previous peak in June 2022.

On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in August, from up 3.0% YoY in July.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% in May 2023.

The second graph shows the month-over-month change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted. The index has increased for eight consecutive months after declining MoM for seven consecutive months.

The FMHPI was up 0.7% MoM in August, about the same as in June and July.

11 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

In August, 11 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Utah (-3.8%), Arizona (-3.4%), Hawaii (-3.4%), Idaho (-3.2%), and Nevada (-2.8%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 1.0% YoY in July. The FMHPI is suggesting a further YoY increase in the Case-Shiller index in the next few reports.

I’ll have an update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability soon.