Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

14 of the 30 cities with largest price declines are in Florida!

Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in December, up from up 3.9% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023.

The second graph shows the month-over-month (MoM) change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted. The index has increased MoM for 25 consecutive months after declining MoM for six consecutive months in 2022.

The FMHPI was up 0.54% MoM in December, seasonally adjusted. Over the last 3 months, this index has increased at a 6.6% annual rate - price growth has picked back up recently - and 5.4% annualized over the last 6 months.

4 States have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

As of December, 4 states were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted decline from the recent peak is in Delaware (-1.2%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 6 of the 7 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida (and Florida has 14 of the 30 cities with the largest price declines).

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 3.8% YoY in November. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will be up about the same or a little more year-over-year in the December report as in November.

As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will slow in 2025.