Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year

17 of the 30 worst performing cities are now in Florida!

Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.28% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.6% in September, down from up 4.0% YoY in August.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023.

The second graph shows the month-over-month change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted. The index has increased for 20 of the last 21 months after declining MoM for seven consecutive months.

The FMHPI was up 0.28% MoM in September. Over the last 3 months, this index has increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and 2.2% annualized over the last 6 months (price growth mostly slowing down).

11 States have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

As of September, 11 states were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Florida (-2.2%), Louisiana (-1.8%), Arizona (-1.7%), North Carolina (-1.5), and Arkansas (-1.3%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 17 of the 30 worst performing cities are now in Florida!

And 9 of the 12 worst performing cities are in Florida.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 4.2% YoY in August. The FMHPI is suggesting a slower YoY increase in the Case-Shiller index.

With the slowdown in price increases over the last six months, and the increase in inventory, it appears house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow as the year progresses.