Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.10% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.6% in August, down from up 1.7% YoY in July. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023.
The second graph shows the month-over-month (MoM) change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI increased 0.10% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. Over the last 3 months, this index has increased at a 0.3% annual rate and was unchanged over the last 6 months.
House prices are under pressure and might turn negative year-over-year by the end of 2025.
20 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of August, 20 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in Florida (-3.3), Arizona (-3.1%), New Mexico (-2.3%), D.C. (-2.1%) and Idaho (-1.8%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 186 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 15 of the 30 cities are in Florida.
Texas has the 2nd most CBSAs on the list.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 2.0% YoY in August) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 1.7% YoY in July. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up about the same year-over-year in the August report compared to July.
As inventory increased in 2025, and sales remained low, house price growth (year-over-year) slowed and might turn negative towards the end of 2025.