Here are two pieces of weekly data that I follow.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Remain Weak
From the Mortgage Bankers Association: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 6.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 25, 2026.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in almost three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines. The 30-year fixed rate increased for the sixth consecutive week to 7.3 percent, the highest rate since November 2023,” said Joel Kan, CMB, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications fell by 6 percent due to the recent surge in rates, with purchase and refinance applications both declining to their slowest weekly pace since 2025. Government refinances declined 13 percent, with both FHA and VA applications experiencing double digit decreases over the week. emphasis added
This graph shows the seasonally adjusted MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 14% year-over-year unadjusted.
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity remains depressed.
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
The refinance index is historically very low and has declined recently with the increase in mortgage rates.
Inventory Up Year-over-year
And here is some timely data from Altos Research on active single-family inventory. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015 through last Friday (September 25th).
The red line is for 2026. The black line is for 2019.
Inventory was up 3.8% compared to the same week in 2025 (the previous week it was up 3.2%), and down 6.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.7%).
Inventory has picked up slightly and demand is weak. With 30-year mortgage rates above 7 1/2%, existing home sales will likely slow and house prices will be under pressure.