Discover more from CalculatedRisk Newsletter
Homebuyers Hit Brakes in July, Sellers Hold Back
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July
The big story for July existing home sales is the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story is that new listings are down YoY in July. Of course, active listings are up sharply.
This is the second look at local markets in July. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
We are seeing a significant change in inventory, but a decline in new listings. Most of the increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.
Houston: “Another tap on the brakes”
From the Houston Association of REALTORS®: Houston Housing Gets Another Tap on the Brakes in July
The frenetic pace of home sales that dominated the Houston housing market throughout most of the pandemic continues to slow its roll. … Home sales experienced their fourth consecutive monthly decline in July, while new listings buoyed inventory to the highest level in two years. …
Single-family home sales fell 17.1 percent in July with 8,370 units sold across the Greater Houston area compared to 10,102 a year earlier. … Townhouses and condominiums experienced their second consecutive monthly decline, dropping 21.5 percent year-over-year with 656 closed sales versus 836 a year earlier.
Active Inventory in July
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in July. Inventory usually increases seasonally in July, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising. However, for these markets, inventory was up almost 14% from June to July.
Inventory in these markets were down 24% YoY in January, down 10% YoY in March, and are now up 46% YoY! So, this is a significant change from earlier this year. This is another step towards a more balanced market, but inventory levels are still historically low in most markets.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver (included in state totals)
New Listings in July
And here is a table for new listings in July. For these areas, new listings were down 8.6% YoY.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 3.9% YoY. Overall, we aren’t seeing a pickup in new listings in these markets. In most markets, new listings are down YoY.
Closed Sales in July
And a table of July sales. Sales in these areas were down 26.6% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Contracts for sales in July were mostly signed in May and June, and we are seeing the impact of higher mortgage rates on July closings.
Last month, all local markets I track were down 15.9% YoY, NSA. This appears to be another step down in sales, although there was one less selling day in July this year than in July 2021.
Sales in some of the hottest markets are down 30% or more YoY, whereas in other markets, sales are only down in the high teens YoY.
Much more to come!
CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.