Housing Starts Decreased to 1.354 million Annual Rate in September

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 0.5 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,361,000 and is 0.7 percent below the September 2023 rate of 1,363,000. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,027,000; this is 2.7 percent above the revised August figure of 1,000,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 317,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 2.9 percent below the revised August rate of 1,470,000 and is 5.7 percent below the September 2023 rate of 1,515,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 970,000; this is 0.3 percent above the revised August figure of 967,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 398,000 in September.
emphasis added

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in September compared to August. Multi-family starts were down 16.2% year-over-year. Single-family starts (red) increased in September and were up 5.5% year-over-year.

Note that the weakness in 2022 and early 2023 had been in single family starts (red), then the weakness moved to multi-family. Single family bounced back in August and September from the weak level in July, and multi-family starts might have bottomed earlier this year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent weakness.

Total housing starts in September were slightly above expectations and starts in July and August were revised up. A solid report.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

Total starts were down 0.7% in September compared to September 2023.  The YoY decrease in September total starts was due weakness in multi-family starts.

Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 13 of the last 15 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 1 of last 15 months. Year-to-date (YTD), total starts are down 3.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Single family starts are up 10.1% YTD, and multi-family down 30.6% YTD.

Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Continue to Decline

The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers!