Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April

Distribution of Interest Rates on First-Liens Mortgages Outstanding

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.33 million in April, down 2.5% from March’s preliminary pace and down 22.3% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this April’s lower business day count relative to last April’s.  On an unadjusted basis the YOY % decline in sales was largest in the West.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was down by about 1.0% from last April.  I estimate that the median existing SF home sales price in the West last month was down by about 8.5% YOY.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Thursday, May 18, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 4.30 million SAAR.

Also from Tom Lawler:

Below is a table from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of last year.