Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this December’s business day count compared to last December’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.6% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in November. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR. This will be the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase following YoY declines every month since July 2021.