Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

Chart of the Week

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in September, down 1.0% from August’s preliminary pace and down 14.5% from last September’s seasonally adjusted pace.  Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY decline, reflecting this September’s lower business day count relative to last September’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 3.4% from last September.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release September existing home sales on Thursday, October 19th, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.04 million in August.

Lawler’s Chart of the Week

There is no stable relationship between MBS Yields and the 10 Year Treasury Rate.

For more on why the spread is so large, see: Lawler: Update on Mortgage/Treasury Spreads, Lawler: Mortgage/Treasury Spreads, Part I and Lawler: Mortgage/Treasury Spreads Part II: “Decomposing” the Widening This Year