Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

First Year-over-year gain in Existing Home Sales since August 2021

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.97 million in October, up 3.4% from September’s preliminary pace and up 3.1% from last October’s seasonally adjusted pace.  Unadjusted sales should show a moderately higher YOY % gain, reflecting this October’s higher business day count compared to last October’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 4.7% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release October Existing Home sales on Thursday, Nov 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.88 million SAAR, up from 3.84 million in September. Last year, the NAR reported sales in October 2023 at 3.85 million SAAR. This will be the first year-over-year gain since August 2021 following 37 months with a year-over-year decline.

Update on Interest Rates Since the Fed Began Lowering Its Federal Funds Rate Target Range

Since September 17, 2024 the Federal Reserve has lowered its federal funds rate target range by 75 basis points.  Below is a table showing Treasury rates and selected MBS yields from September 17 to November 14.

Chart of the Week

Note: 2000.01 to 2024.03 are Quarterly Averages; 2024.04 is for November 14, 2024