Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July; California Sales Down 9% YoY

This is the third look at local markets in July. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in May, and 6.7% in June, compared to the low-to-mid 5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in July.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in July, down 1.0% from June’s preliminary pace and down 16.8% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from last July.

California Home Sales Down 9.0% YoY in July

California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report sales and the change in months of inventory.

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California median home price registers first annual price gain in 9 months; statewide sales take a step back in July, C.A.R. reports

• Existing, single-family home sales totaled 269,180 in July on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 3.0 percent from June and down 9.0 percent from July 2022.

• July’s statewide median home price was $832,340, down 0.7 percent from June and up 0.2 percent from July 2022.
...
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 269,180 in July, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

California’s median home price exceeded $800,000 in July for the fourth straight month and had its first year-over-year gain in nine months. The statewide median price dipped 0.7 percent from June’s $838,260 to $832,340 in July and was up 0.2 percent from a revised $830,870 a year ago. …

• Housing inventory in California climbed month-over-month in July for the second straight month after inching up in June but continued to trail last year’s level as a lack of new listings remained the norm. Last month’s statewide unsold inventory index (UII) increased 13.4 percent from the prior month but dropped sharply by 19.4 percent on a year-over-year basis. Active listings at the state level continued to fall more than 30 percent from a year ago and recorded the largest annual decline since May 2021.

emphasis added

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in July.

Inventory surged in some of these markets last year, but that has changed.

For example, inventory in Denver was up 81% YoY in July 2022, and is now down 14% YoY. And inventory in Las Vegas was up 144% YoY in July 2022, and is now down 41% YoY. That is a HUGE change.

Inventory for these markets were up 3% in June and are now down 9% YoY.

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 22.0% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 24.2% YoY. The decline in new listing in July - for these areas - was similar to the YoY decline for the last several months.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales.

In July, sales in these markets were down 14.2%. In June, these same markets were down 16.1% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in June for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in July 2022 and July 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates - and sales in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis will likely be close to 4.06 million.

More local markets to come!