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CalculatedRisk Newsletter

Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride's avatar
CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride
Dec 09, 2025
∙ Paid

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

Executive Summary: Policymakers and financial analysts looking for “models” as a guide for assessing the neutral interest rate are faced with a dilemma: various models produce significantly different results, and it is far from clear which if any model is the “most” accurate. Whi…

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